Manufacturing PMIs: Falling in Concert in Europe

August 1, 2008

By Robert Brusca

· The Markit/NTC PMIs show a clear pattern of weakness in the manufacturing sector. Among the major PMI reporters only Germany and Greece still post PMI values above 50, the ostensible neutral mark. If we calculate where the various PMIs stand in their respective historic ranges we find that only Germany is above its range midpoint. Spain, Ireland and the UK are on all time lows since this measure has been reported going back to March 2000. We use March 2000 since it is the date from which all the above PMIs are available although some individual country reports go back farther. We want to compare them over a common time horizon.

· On this basis most of the PMIs for manufacturing are in the lower third of their range or weaker. The EMU measure has slid to the lower third of its range. Europe’s manufacturing sector continues to erode.   

 

Markit/NTC Manufacturing Indexes

 

Jul-08

Jun-08

May-08

3Mo

6Mo

12Mo

Percentile

Euro-13

47.38

49.16

50.60

49.05

50.38

51.62

27.0%

Germany

50.90

52.56

53.57

52.34

53.35

53.69

50.8%

France

47.05

49.24

51.48

49.26

50.76

51.54

22.6%

Italy

45.32

46.91

48.05

46.76

48.10

49.90

13.9%

Spain

39.20

40.61

43.79

41.20

43.66

47.04

0.0%

Austria

46.97

48.39

49.76

48.37

50.12

52.14

23.5%

Greece

51.63

53.81

53.77

53.07

53.11

53.31

42.3%

Ireland

43.39

44.71

45.21

44.44

45.63

48.58

0.0%

Netherlands

47.99

51.07

51.46

50.17

51.17

53.14

31.8%

EU

UK

44.26

45.92

49.23

46.47

48.54

51.06

0.0%

© 2008  HAVER ANALYTICS. All rights reserved.

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