· Chain store sales were reported by the International Council of Shopping Centers to have surged last week. The 1.2% w/w jump was the strongest since early June. It lifted the level of sales to a record high and sales for most of this month by 0.5% versus June.

· During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

· The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

· Showing weakness, however, was the leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS which fell 0.9% (-4.0% y/y) after a 0.3% decline during the week prior.

· The chain store sales figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.

· Monetary Policy and Asset Markets: Conference Summary from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.

· Research on the Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Symposium Summary, also from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, is available here.