·
Though the November reading of Consumer Sentiment from the University of
Michigan rose to 92.8, that was lower than the mid-month reading of 95.5
and indicated that Sentiment faded as the month progressed. Consensus
expectations for a reading of 96.0 were disappointed.
· During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.
· The consumer expectations index rose 1.7% m/m (-3.3% y/y) and the current economic conditions index rose 0.7% (2.1% y/y), both off from the mid-month pace
· Consumer sentiment amongst families earning more than $50,000 per year rose m/m but was down 2.0% y/y. Sentiment amongst families earning less than $50,000 per year fell m/m and fell 1.3% y/y.
· The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted. The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
· "Consumer Sentiment and the Media" from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.