·
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for October rose to 0.52
but the prior month's negative reading was deepened slightly. The
three-month moving average of the CFNAI fell to the lowest level in
nearly a year.
· A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
· During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
· The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.