· Seasonal adjustment difficulties have contributed to the erratic behavior of initial claims in recent weeks, according to the Labor Department.

· The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 404,500, down 2.6% y/y.

· Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell slightly w/w. That followed the sharp increase in the week prior, but the trend remained down. Continuing claims in the latest week were down roughly 10% from the highs this past Spring.

· The insured rate of unemployment was stable at 2.7%. 

12/21/02

12/14/02

Y/Y

2001

2000

1999

· Mortgage applications to refinance fell and are down by over one third from the highs.

·  The recent contract rate on a conventional 30 year mortgage rose slightly in the latest week to 5.74% but was still down versus 6.09% at the end of November.

· Mortgage applications for home purchase fell in the latest week but the trend has remained firm relative to refi's.

12/20/02

11/15/02

2001

2000

1999