· The reading pulled the three-month moving average of the CFNAI down to -0.55, a level consistent with roughly 2% growth in real GDP.

. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.

· During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and quarterly growth in real GDP.

· The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production & income, the labor market, personal consumption & housing, mfg. & trade sales, and inventories & orders.

· For a complete discussion of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index click here. 

· A discussion of the CFNAI and its role as a business cycle indicator can be found here.

Oct

Sept

Oct '01

2001

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1999

· Mortgage applications for home purchase also rose, but just slightly. Applications for purchase have been moving irregularly lower since peaking this past Spring.

. The indexes equated to $680 bil. of mortgage originations in 4Q01 of which $476 bil. then was for refinancing (70%) and $204 bil. was for purchase.

. The recent contract rate on a conventional 30 year mortgage was 5.94% versus 6.93% averaged last year. The effective rate, including points, was 6.23%.

11/15/02

10/18/02

2001

2000

1999