Nonfarm Productivity Growth Strong in 3Q

November 7, 2002

By Tom Moeller

· Nonfarm labor productivity grew as expected last quarter. Consensus estimates were for growth at a 4.1% rate. While growth was more than double the 2Q rate, it was roughly half the heated growth of 4Q01 and 1Q02.

· Output in the nonfarm business sector rose a strong 4.0% (AR). That's versus 3.1% in real GDP last quarter. Hours worked were unchanged. Hours worked generally have been declining since early 2000.

· Unit Labor costs rose at half the 2Q rate; up in the last two quarters after three consecutive quarters of decline. Compensation growth was strong the last three quarters.

· Manufacturing sector productivity grew a strong 5.9% (5.9% y/y). Unit labor costs fell 1.3%, the fifth consecutive quarterly decline. 

· For analysis of the recent resurgence in US productivity growth by the Atlanta Fed, click here. 

 
Nonfarm Business Sector (SAAR)

3Q '02

 2Q '02

Y/Y

2001

2000

1999
Output per Hour 4.0% 1.7% 5.3% 1.1% 2.9% 2.4%
Compensation 4.8% 3.9% 3.3% 2.7% 6.9% 4.4%
Unit Labor Costs 0.8% 2.2% -2.0% 1.6% 3.9% 2.0%

 

Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Fell

November 7, 2002

By Tom Moeller

 · Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell more than expected in the latest week. Claims in the prior week were unrevised.

· The four-week moving average of initial claims rose slightly to 402,00, down 13.4% y/y.

· Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose marginally, but the prior week's sharp increase was halved.

· The insured rate of unemployment was stable at 2.8% for the third consecutive week. 

 

  
Unemployment Insurance (000s)

11/02/02

10/26/02

Y/Y

2001

2000

1999
Initial Claims 390.0 410.0 -10.1% 405.8 299.8 297.7
Continuing Claims -- 3,583 0.1% 3,021 2,114 2,186

 

Consumer Credit Growth Rose

November 7, 2002

By Tom Moeller

 · Consumer credit outstanding rose $9.9B (0.6%) in September, nearly double the prior month's growth and higher than Consensus expectations for a $6.0B rise. August figures were revised up due to sharply raised figures for revolving credit. So far this year, consumer credit outstanding has risen at a 5.3% annual rate.

· Revolving credit rose 0.8%, the same as in August which was revised from 0.5%. Revolving credit growth was 5.6% (AR) through September.  

· Nonrevolving credit grew 0.4% after falling slightly in August. Nonrevolving extension was up 5.0% (AR) YTD.

 

  
Consumer Credit Outstanding

Sept m/m

Aug m/m

Y/Y

2001

2000

1999
Total $9.9B $5.6B 6.3% 6.9% 10.2% 7.5%
  Revolving $5.6B $6.0B 4.4% 5.0% 11.5% 6.3%
  Nonrevolving $4.3B $-0.4B 7.7% 8.3% 9.2% 8.4%

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