Commentary Archive

December 2002
31 Chain Store Sales Up
31 Consumer Confidence Down
30 Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Fell
30 Existing Home Sales Down
27 New Home Sales Rose
27 Help Wanted Advertising Stayed Low
26 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Dropped
26 Mortgage Applications Fell
24 Durable Goods Orders Fell Unexpectedly
24 Chain Store Sales Rose
23 Personal Income Moderate, Spending Firm
23 Consumer Sentiment Up in December
20 3Q GDP Growth Revised Little
19 U.S. Budget Deficit As Expected in November
19 Philadelphia Fed Index Rose
19 Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improved Slightly
19 Leading Indicators Up
19 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Remained High
18 U.S. Trade Deficit Improved
18 Mortgage Applications Back Up
17 CPI Weak, As Expected
17 Housing Starts Rose More Than Expected
17 Industrial Production Up Slightly
17 Chain Store Sales Recovered Sharply
17 Crude Oil Prices Surge to $30.00 per Barrel
16 NAHB Housing Index Firm Again
16 Empire State Factory Survey Improved Further in December
13 Producer Prices Fall
13 Business Inventory Accumulation Continued
13 Consumer Sentiment Up in Early December
12 Mortgage Refinancing Drops
12 3Q Current Account Deficit Narrowed
12 Retail Sales Rose Moderately
12 Import Prices Down
12 Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Surged
11 ECRI Leading Indicators Recover
10 FOMC Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
10 Chain Store Sales Weak Post Thanksgiving
9 Credit Spreads Tighten
6 Consumer Credit Much Weaker Than Expected
6 Nonfarm Payrolls Fell Unexpectedly
5 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fell Unexpectedly
4 Factory Inventories Flat Again
4 ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Firm
4 Revised Productivity Growth Stronger in 3Q
3 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Slightly Better Than Expected
3 Home Price Data Diverge
3 Weekly Chain Store Sales Up
3 Challenger Survey Showed Layoffs High in November
2 ISM Index Up Slightly
2 Construction Spending Up
November 2002
27 Durable Goods Orders Recovered, Some
27 Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Up Sharply
27 Personal Income Modest
27 Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fell
26 Consumer Confidence Recovered a Bit
26 New Home Sales Again Strong
26 3Q GDP Growth Revised Up
26 Weekly Chain Store Sales Recover a Bit
25 OECD Leaders Fell Further
25 Existing Home Sales Up Again
22 Chicago Fed National Activity Index Hit a "Soft Spot" in October
22 Mortgage Refinancing Booms
21 U.S. Budget Deficit Deepened in October
21 Philadelphia Fed Index Improved
21 Leading Indicators Unchanged
21 Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Down
20 Housing Starts Fell Sharply
19 NAHB Housing Index Surged
19 Weekly Chain Store Sales Falter
19 U.S. Trade Deficit Remained Quite Deep in September
19 CPI Rose As Expected
18 Manpower Survey Hiring Index Improved for 1Q03
18 ECRI Future Inflation Gauge Level After Prior Surge
15 Consumer Sentiment Up in Early November
15 Empire State Manufacturing Survey Improved in November
15 Producer Prices Rocket Higher
15 Business Inventory Accumulation Started Again
15 Industrial Production Down Sharply
14 Retail Sales Unchanged M/M, but Healthy
14 Import Prices Up Slightly
14 Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Fell
12 US Dollar Down as Fed Eased, Commodity Prices Flat
12 Weekly Chain Store Sales Up Again
11 Chicago Fed National Activity Index Gained Slightly in September
8 ECRI Leading Indicators Down
7 Consumer Credit Growth Rose
7 Nonfarm Productivity Growth Strong in 3Q
7 Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Fell
6 Fed Cuts Funds Rate 50 Basis Points
5 ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Fell Slightly
5 Weekly Chain Store Sales Recover, Again Just Some
5 Challenger Survey Indicates Layoffs Surged in October
4 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Plummet
4 Factory Inventories Flat
1 Nonfarm Payrolls Fell Again
1 Personal Income Up, Spending Down
1 ISM Index Again Below 50
1 Construction Spending Strong Due to Gov't Building
October 2002
31 Help Wanted Advertising Up Slightly
31 Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Dropped Again
31 3Q GDP Growth Firm
31 Employment Cost Index Eased
31 Claims for Jobless Insurance Rose
30 OECD Leaders Down
29 Consumer Confidence Plunged
29 Weekly Chain Store Sales Plummet
28 Setting Monetary Policy
25 FY 2002 U.S. Budget Deficit Due to Lower Receipts, Higher Spending
25 Durable Goods Orders Down Sharply
25 New Home Sales Soar to Another Record
25 Existing Home Sales Rose
25 Consumer Sentiment Down in October
24 Claims for Jobless Insurance Down
22 Chain Store Sales Recover, Some
21 Leading Indicators Down For Fourth Month
18 CPI Rose Moderately
18 U.S. Trade Deficit Deepened Sharply
17 Philadelphia Fed Index Slumped
17 Housing Starts Much Stronger Than Expected
17 Industrial Production Down Slightly
17 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Rose
16 Crude Oil Prices Hold the High Level
15 Business Inventory Decumulation Resumed
15 Chain Store Sales Disappoint
14 ECRI Future Inflation Gauge Rose Further
11 Retail Sales Decline
11 Producer Prices Up Slightly
11 Consumer Sentiment Down Sharply
10 Import Prices Rose Twice Expectations
10 Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Down
9 Chicago Fed National Activity Index Down Again in Aug
9 US Dollar Up, Commodity Prices Move Sideways
8 Chain Store Sales Recover
7 Consumer Credit Growth Slowed Sharply
7 ECRI Leading Indicators Fell Further
4 Nonfarm Payrolls Fell in September
3 Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Tick Up
3 ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Improved
3 Factory Inventory Decumulation Leveled Off
2 Challenger Survey Indicates Layoffs Reversed August Rise
2 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Down
1 ISM Index Fell Below 50
1 Construction Spending Fell in August
1 Chain Store Sales Slide Again
September 2002
30 Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Below 50
30 Personal Income and Spending Moderate
27 Consumer Sentiment Down in September
27 2Q GDP Growth Revised Up Slightly to 1.3%
26 Help Wanted Advertising Down Sharply
26 New Home Sales Another Record
26 Durable Goods Orders Down Just Slightly
26 Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Fall
25 Existing Home Sales Fell
24 Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
24 Weekly Chain Store Sales Slump
24 Consumer Confidence Down Modestly
23 Leading Indicators Down For Third Month
20 Crude Oil Prices Strong
20 U.S. Budget Deficit Deepened in August
19 Housing Starts Fell Again
19 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fell Slightly
19 Philadelphia Fed Index Rose
18 CPI Rose More Than Expected
18 U.S. Trade Deficit Improved Again in July
17 Industrial Production Fell Unexpectedly
17 Weekly Chain Store Sales Unchanged
16 Business Inventory Accumulation Strong
13 August Retail Sales Firm
13 Producer Prices Again Weak
13 Consumer Sentiment Down Further
12 Import Prices Rose As Expected
12 2Q Current Account Deficit Another Record
12 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Highest Since April
11 ECRI Future Inflation Gauge Rose
10 The Dollar & Commodity Prices Meander
10 Chain Store Sales Up Modestly
9 Consumer Credit Growth Strong
9 Chicago Fed National Activity Index Down in July
6 August Payrolls Rose Modestly
5 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Firm
5 Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Fell
5 Nonfarm Productivity Growth Revised Up
5 ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Weak
5 Slow Factory Inventory Decumulation Continued
4 Construction Spending Unchanged in July
4 Chain Store Sales Recover Some
3 ISM Index Unchanged in August
3 Challenger Survey Indicates Layoffs Rose Sharply
August 2002
30 Personal Income Weak, Spending Up
30 Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Firmed
30 Consumer Sentiment Fell Again
29 Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Rose Again
29 Weak 2Q GDP Growth of 1.1% Unchanged
29 Help Wanted Advertising Down
28 US Budget Surpluses Gone
28 Crude Oil Prices Up
27 Chain Store Sales Down for Third Week
27 Consumer Confidence Fell Sharply, Again
27 Durable Goods Orders Recover
26 July New Home Sales a Record
26 Existing Home Sales Rebound
26 Manpower Survey Hiring Index Stable in 4Q
23 Lending Standards Ease
22 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Higher Than Expected
22 ECRI Leading Indicators Down
21 U.S. Budget Deficit Deepened
20 U.S. Trade Deficit Improved in June
20 Weekly Chain Store Sales Fell Again
19 Leading Indicators Fall
19 The Chain Weighted CPI
16 Consumer Sentiment Down Slightly
16 Housing Starts Down
16 CPI Rose Less Than Expected
15 Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Rose
15 Industrial Production Up 0.2%
13 July Retail Sales Rose; June Revised Higher
9 Nonfarm Productivity Firm
8 Producer Prices Fell
8 Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Down
7 Consumer Credit Growth Steady
7 Import Prices Rose Sharply
6 Weekly Chain Store Sales Tick Higher
5 ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Fell Again
2 July Payrolls Weak, Hours Plunge
2 Personal Income & Spending Up
2 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Surge
2 Factory Inventory Decumulation Slowed
1 ISM Index Down Sharply in July
1 Construction Spending Fell Sharply in June
1 Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Up Moderately
July 2002
31 Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Fell Again
31 2Q GDP Weak, Past Data Revised Down
30 Consumer Confidence Down
30 Weekly Chain Store Sales Dip
29 OECD Growth on the Mend?
26 Consumer Sentiment Firmer Than Expected
25 June New Home Sales Strong
25 Existing Home Sales Down Sharply
25 Help Wanted Advertising Rebounded
25 Jobless Insurance Claims Down Again
25 Employment Cost Index Up Sharply
25 Durable Goods Orders Plunge
24 Junk Bond Spread Widens As Stocks Fall
24 The Dollar Rises & Commodity Prices Fall
23 Weekly Chain Store Sales Recover
22 ECRI Leaders Stall
19 CPI Rose Modestly
19 U.S. Trade Deficit Another Record in May
19 U.S. Budget Surplus Down Vs. Last June
18 Philadelphia Fed Index Fell
18 Leading Indicators Unchanged
18 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Down Sharply
17 Housing Starts Down
16 Industrial Production Strong
16 Weekly Chain Store Sales Fell Slightly
16 Greenspan Suggests Economy Improving, Inflation Low
15 Business Inventories Rose Unexpectedly
12 Consumer Sentiment Fell Unexpectedly
12 Retail Sales Recover in June
11 Producer Prices Up Slightly
11 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Up
10 OECD Leading Indicators Suggest Positive Growth
10 Import Prices Fell Sharply
9 Weekly Chain Store Sales Up in Early July
8 Consumer Credit Growth Strong
8 Challenger Survey Indicates Layoffs Down
5 June Payrolls Weak, Jobless Rate Up
3 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Recover
3 Claims for Jobless Insurance Down
3 ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Down
3 Factory Inventories Fell Again
2 Weekly Chain Store Sales Fell
1 Construction Spending Down in May
1 ISM Index Rose Further
June 2002
28 Personal Income Up, Spending Down
28 Consumer Sentiment Better Than Expected
28 Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Down
27 Strong 1Q GDP Revised Higher
27 Jobless Insurance Claims Fell, Rehiring May Have Improved
27 Help Wanted Advertising Down
27 Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
26 Durable Goods Orders Rose
26 May New Home Sales Surge to Record Level
25 Consumer Confidence Down
25 Existing Home Sales Down Just Slightly
25 Chain Store Sales Improved
24 Capital Spending on the Mend
21 Inflation Prospects: Low But Rising
21 Help Wanted Advertising Up Slightly
20 May U.S. Budget Deficit Rose
20 Philadelphia Fed Index Surged
20 U.S. Trade Deficit a Record in April
20 1Q Current Account Deficit A Record
20 Leading Indicators Resume Rise
20 Jobless Insurance Claims Fell Slightly
19 ECRI Leaders Stutter, Growth Rate Rose
18 CPI Total Unchanged, Core Prices Weak
18 Housing Starts Strong in May
18 Chain Store Sales Up for the Second Week
17 Liquidity Improved in May
17 NAHB Housing Index Flat in 2002
14 Business Inventories Fell As Expected
14 Industrial Production Rose Weakly
14 Consumer Sentiment Down Sharply
13 Retail Sales Broadly Lower in May
13 Producer Prices Fell for Second Month
13 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Up Moderately
12 Import Prices Surprisingly Unchanged
11 Chain Store Sales Jumped
10 Consumer Credit Growth Up in April
7 May Payrolls Weak, but the Jobless Rate Fell
6 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fell Sharply
6 ECRI Gauges Suggest Continued Recovery...
5 ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Strong
4 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Soft
4 Chain Store Sales Remain Soft
3 ISM Index: Movin' On Up
May 2002
31 Robust 1Q Productivity Revised Little
31 Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Strong
31 Factory Inventories Fall Again
31 Consumer Sentiment Rose
30 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fell...
29 Chain Store Sales Down, Leaders Weak
28 Personal Income Up Moderately, Spending Slowed
28 Consumer Confidence Rose
28 Existing Home Sales Rose
24 Strong 1Q GDP Little Revised
24 April New Home Sales Surge
23 Durable Goods Orders Rose Broadly
23 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fell
22 Economic Momentum Lost: The Dollar & Commodity Prices
21 Chain Store Sales Remained Soft
21 April U.S. Budget Surplus Smallest Since 1995
20 Leading Indicators Down
17 US Trade Deficit Deep, As Expected
17 Consumer Sentiment Strong
16 April Housing Starts Down More Than Expected
16 Initial Claims Up, Continuing Claims a 20 Year Record
16 Philadelphia Fed Index Weaker Than Expected
15 CPI Up Led by Higher Tobacco Prices
15 Business Inventories Down Again
15 Industrial Production Extended Recovery
15 NAHB Housing Index Stable in May
14 Retail Sales Strength Fueled by Gasoline and Autos
14 Chain Store Sales Fell Early in May
13 Manpower Survey Suggests Improved Hiring
10 Producer Prices Fell Unexpectedly
9 Import Price Gains Limited to Oil & Food
9 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Down, Rehiring Weak
8 Consumer Credit Growth Moderate in March
7 Nonfarm Productivity Robust
7 Chain Store Sales Recover
6 ECRI Weekly Leading Index Rose Further
6 The Dollar & Commodity Prices: Mixed Signals
3 April Job Rise Too Small to Keep Unempl Rate from Rising
3 ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Again Falls Slightly
2 Factory Inventories Fall Again
2 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fell
1 ISM Index Down Slightly
1 Construction Spending Down in March
April 2002
30 Chain Store Sales Disappointing
30

Consumer Confidence Down Slightly
30 Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Fell
29 Personal Income and Spending Up
26 1Q GDP Stronger Than Expected
26 Consumer Sentiment Fell Further
25 Employment Cost Index Up Moderately
25 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fell
25 Existing Home Sales Fell More than Expected
25 Help Wanted Advertising Stayed Low
24 Durable Goods Orders Down
24 New Home Sales Down in March
23 Weekly Chain Store Sales Jump
22 ECRI Weekly Leading Index Signals Recovery
18 Leading Indicators Up Slightly
18 Philadelphia Fed Index Up Slightly
18 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Surge
17 Trade Deficit Deepened With Improved US Economy
16 Consumer Prices Up Less Than Expected
16 March Housing Starts Down, 1Q02 Strong
16 Industrial Production Rose More Than Expected
16 Weekly Chain Store Sales Fall
15 Business Inventories Continue Falling
12 Producer Prices Up More Than Expected
12 Retail Sales Again Up Less than Expected
12 Consumer Sentiment Lower
11 Import Prices Up as Oil Prices Surge
11 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fall
10 Crude Oil Prices Surge
9 Weekly Chain Store Sales Up Slightly
8 Corporate Profits Surged in 4Q
5 Jobs in March Up, February Gain Revised Down
5 Consumer Credit Growth Stable in February
4 Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Highest Since Dec
3 Vehicle Sales Down Slightly Versus February
3 ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Down Slightly
2 Weekly Chain Store Sales Down
2 Factory Inventory Liquidation Continued
1 ISM Index Slightly Higher
1 Construction Spending Strong Again in February
March 2002
29 Personal Income and Spending Strong
29 Consumer Sentiment Strong
28 4Q GDP Revised Up Again
28 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Surge
28 Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Rose
27 New Home Sales Up
26 Consumer Confidence Surged
26 Durable Goods Orders Up, but Lack Strong Momentum
26 Weekly Chain Store Sales Down
25 Existing Home Sales Down But Level Strong
22 Oil Prices Surging
21 Consumer Prices Rose Expected 0.2%
21 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Down
21 Leading Indicators Unchanged
21 U.S. Budget Deficit Surged
21 Philadelphia Fed Index Down Slightly
20 Housing Starts Surprisingly Strong
19 January Trade Deficit Deepened
19 Weekly Chain Store Sales Flat
18 PCE Price Deflator Subdued
15

Producer Prices Rise As Expected
15 Industrial Production Rose More Than Expected
14 Import Prices Resume Their Slide
14 Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Fell
14 Business Inventories Rose Unexpectedly
14 4Q Current Account Deficit Deepened Slightly
13 Retail Sales Up Less than Expected
12 Foreign Exchange Value of the US $ Falls
12 Weekly Chain Store Sales Slip
11 ECRI Leading Inflation Gauge Up 
11 Job Cut Announcements Plunge 
8 Employment Rose More Than Expected
7 Consumer Borrowing Surged in January
7 Nonfarm Productivity Revision Unexpected
7 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Up Slightly
6 Factory Inventory Liquidation Slowed
5 ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Surged
5 Weekly Chain Store Sales Down Again
5 Higher Commodity Prices Add Further to Recovery Signal
4 Vehicle Sales Up Versus January
1 Personal Income & Spending Strong
1 Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Up Sharply
1 ISM Index Quite Strong
1 Construction Spending Strong in January
1 Help Wanted Advertising Stable
February 2002
28 Revised 4Q GDP More Than Expected
28 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Up Slightly
27 Durable Goods Orders Rise
27 New Home Sales Fall Sharply
26 Weekly Chain Store Sales Fall Just Slightly
26 Consumer Confidence Fell
25 Existing Homes Sales Set Record
22 OECD Leaders Signal Recovery?
21 U.S. Budget Surplus Shrinking
21 Philadelphia Fed Index Added to Gain
21 Leading Indicators Rise Fourth in a Row
21 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Up Slightly
20 CPI Increase As Expected
20 Weekly Chain Store Sales Surge, Again
19 Housing Starts Strongest Since Early 2000
15 Industrial Production Decline Moderated
14 First Rise in Import Prices Since May '01
14 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fell
14 Inventories Liquidated Through Yearend
13 Retail Sales Firm
12 Weekly Chain Store Sales Build Momentum
11 Higher Commodity Prices Signal Recovery in Manufacturing
7 ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Fell
7 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fell
6 Productivity Increase Higher Than Expected
5 Announced Layoffs Exceed 200,000
1 Job Loss Smallest Since August
1 ISM Index Up
1 Construction Spending Rose in December
January 2002
31 Employment Cost Index Gains
31 Personal Income Rose, Spending Down Again
31 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Rose
31 Chicago PM Index Rose Sharply
30 Unexpected Rise in Real GDP
30 Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
29 Durable Goods Orders Firm
29 Weekly Chain Store Sales Up Again
29 Consumer Confidence Surged
28 New Home Sales Set a Record in 2001
25 Existing Homes Sales Down Slightly
24 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Continue Downtrend
23 U.S. Budget Deficit Growing
23 Weekly Chain Store Sales Up Again
22 Leading Indicators Rise
18 Foreign Trade Deficit Fell Slightly
17 Housing Starts Down Due to Drop in Multifamily
17 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fell Unexpectedly
17 Philadelphia Fed Index Turned Positive
16 Consumer Prices Unchanged
16 Industrial Production Decline Moderated Further
16 Inventory Liquidation Continued Strong
15 Retail Sales Firmer than Expected
15 Weekly Chain Store Sales Rose
11 Producer Prices Fall Third Month in a Row
10 Import Prices Fell a Record Amount in 2001
10 Weekly Jobless Claims Fell More Than Expected
8 Consumers' Borrowing Surged in November
8 Factory Inventories Move Lower
8 Weekly Chain Store Sales Fell Slightly
4 Job Losses Moderate
4 ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Rose Further
4 Vehicle Sales Fall
3 Construction Spending Rose in November
3 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Rose Sharply
2 Weekly Chain Store Sales Strong
2 ISM Index Up