Case-Shiller Home Price Gains Are Modest 

January 26, 2010

By Tom Moeller
· The housing market has improved enough to improve pricing power but outright strength is not at hand. The November S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index edged up another 0.2%, about as it did during the prior two months. The increases in this 20 City Composite index were below those during the prior three months. However, they were enough to improve the y/y comparison to -5.3% from its worst of -19.0% last January.

· The narrower 10 City Composite Index also gained 0.2% and the y/y change improved to -4.5% from -19.4% at its worst. These negative comparisons by far outpace those during the 1990-91 recession which reached minus 6.3%.

· Notable monthly gains in home prices during November were logged by Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco. Positive changes also were logged in Dallas.

· The Case Shiller home price series are value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is  assigned to more expensive homes. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found in Haver's USECON database and the city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL database.

 
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA, Jan 00 = 100) November m/m October   m/m September m/m Nov. y/y 2008 2007 2006
20 City Composite Index 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% -5.3% -15.7% -3.8% 7.6%
  Regional Indicators
     Atlanta 0.2 -0.4 0.1 -6.2 -8.5 0.7 4.3
     Boston 0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -5.7 -4.0 -1.8
     Chicago -0.8 -1.0 1.2 -8.5 -10.0 -1.0 6.6
     Dallas 0.6 0.2 -0.3 1.4 -3.2 0.5 3.2
     Denver 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.5 -4.9 -1.7 2.1
     Los Angeles 1.0 0.7 0.7 -3.5 -24.2 -5.2 11.6
     New York -0.9 -0.3 -0.2 -7.1 -7.4 -2.8 7.5
     San Francisco 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.0 -24.3 -4.5 4.5

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