JOLTS: U.S. Job Openings Remain At Series' Low

January 13, 2010

By Tom Moeller

· The Bureau of Labor Statistics continued to indicate little improvement in hiring, but layoffs have diminished. In its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job availability during November fell 6.1% from October and is off 27.1% year-to-year. The series dates back to December 2000. As a result of the decline the job openings rate fell to 1.8% and remained off sharply from the 3.1% rate before the current recession began. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings.

· The service sector weakened last month. The number of retail job openings fell 15.8% (-49.3% y/y) and the number of professional & business service jobs fell 9.2% (-13.7% y/y). Leisure & hospitality jobs also were off, by 7.8% (-21.2% y/y), but educational & health service jobs rose 4.2% (-21.7% y/y). Even the number of government sector job openings fell 9.8% (-10.3% y/y). Countering weakness in service sector hiring was the factory sector where job openings rose for the fourth consecutive month but they remained off 28.6% y/y. Construction sector job openings were firm for the third of the last four months and posted an 11.6% (+1.3% y/y) increase.

· The hires rate picked up slightly m/m to 3.2% and was improved from the series' low of 3.0% last spring. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment. The actual number of hires also rose 3.2% m/m but was down 1.2% year-to-year. Professional & business service sector hires rose 14.1% (7.2% y/y) while leisure & hospitality hires rose 8.4% (4.0% y/y). Factory sector hiring slipped 0.8% and was off a diminished 5.4% y/y while construction sector hiring also dipped m/m (-10.0% y/y).

· The job separations rate increased modestly from the series' low to 3.3% with the actual number of separations off 10.8% year-to-year. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The layoff rate alone held steady at 1.6% for the third consecutive month. That was down sharply from the rate's high of 1.9% last winter.

· The JOLTS survey dates only to December 2000 but has followed the movement in nonfarm payrolls, though the actual correlation between the two series is low.

· A description of the Jolts survey and the latest release from the U.S. Department of Labor is available here and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database. 

 

JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor  Turnover Survey) November October September Nov. '08 2008 2007 2006
Job Openings, Total
  Rate (%) 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.3 3.1 3.3
  Total (000s) 2,415 2,571 2,586 3,311 3,224 4,382 4,606
Hires, Total
  Rate (%) 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 41.1 46.1 47.6
  Total (000s) 4,176 4,045 4,061 4,226 56,486 63,666 64,879
Layoffs & Discharges, Total
  Rate (%) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3
  Total (000s) 2,054 2,128 2,128 2,253 24,362 22,613 21,546

© 2010  HAVER ANALYTICS. All rights reserved.

Commentary Archive