JOLTS: U.S. Job Openings Remain At Series' Low
January 13, 2010
By Tom Moeller
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· The Bureau of Labor Statistics continued to indicate little improvement in hiring, but layoffs have diminished. In its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job availability during November fell 6.1% from October and is off 27.1% year-to-year. The series dates back to December 2000. As a result of the decline the job openings rate fell to 1.8% and remained off sharply from the 3.1% rate before the current recession began. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. · The service sector weakened last month. The number of retail job openings fell 15.8% (-49.3% y/y) and the number of professional & business service jobs fell 9.2% (-13.7% y/y). Leisure & hospitality jobs also were off, by 7.8% (-21.2% y/y), but educational & health service jobs rose 4.2% (-21.7% y/y). Even the number of government sector job openings fell 9.8% (-10.3% y/y). Countering weakness in service sector hiring was the factory sector where job openings rose for the fourth consecutive month but they remained off 28.6% y/y. Construction sector job openings were firm for the third of the last four months and posted an 11.6% (+1.3% y/y) increase. · The hires rate picked up slightly m/m to 3.2% and was improved from the series' low of 3.0% last spring. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment. The actual number of hires also rose 3.2% m/m but was down 1.2% year-to-year. Professional & business service sector hires rose 14.1% (7.2% y/y) while leisure & hospitality hires rose 8.4% (4.0% y/y). Factory sector hiring slipped 0.8% and was off a diminished 5.4% y/y while construction sector hiring also dipped m/m (-10.0% y/y). · The job separations rate increased modestly from the series' low to 3.3% with the actual number of separations off 10.8% year-to-year. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The layoff rate alone held steady at 1.6% for the third consecutive month. That was down sharply from the rate's high of 1.9% last winter. · The JOLTS survey dates only to December 2000 but has followed the movement in nonfarm payrolls, though the actual correlation between the two series is low. · A description of the Jolts survey and the latest release from the U.S. Department of Labor is available here and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
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| JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey) | November | October | September | Nov. '08 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
| Job Openings, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| Total (000s) | 2,415 | 2,571 | 2,586 | 3,311 | 3,224 | 4,382 | 4,606 |
| Hires, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 41.1 | 46.1 | 47.6 |
| Total (000s) | 4,176 | 4,045 | 4,061 | 4,226 | 56,486 | 63,666 | 64,879 |
| Layoffs & Discharges, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Total (000s) | 2,054 | 2,128 | 2,128 | 2,253 | 24,362 | 22,613 | 21,546 |
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