· Initial
claims for unemployment insurance last week ticked up a modest 6,000 to
371,000 following the prior week's little revised 17,000 rise. Consensus
expectations had been for claims to total 370,000 last week.
· The four week moving average of initial claims fell very slightly week-to-week to 365,750 (19.5% y/y). Claims averaged 365,000 during April.
· A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
· Continuing
claims for unemployment insurance rose 28,000 after a gain of 2,000
during the prior week. That was revised from the initial report of a
moderate decline. The latest level was the highest since March 2004. It
provides some indication of workers' ability to find employment.
· The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
· The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 2.3% for the third week. That was the highest since 2004.
· Yesterday's speech by Fed Governor Randall S. Kroszner titled Risk Management and Basel II can be found here.