·
Overall import prices surged last month. The 1.8% gain was right in line
with expectations and it followed an even stronger 2.9% surge during
March. Together the increases were the strongest on record.
· Petroleum prices jumped 4.4% after the 9.2% surge during March. Imported crude petroleum prices already are up another 10% this month versus April.
· Less petroleum, import prices
increased 1.1%, the same as during March. These increases were the
largest on record, pushed higher by the lower foreign exchange value of
the dollar.
· During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a reduced 47% against a broader basket of currencies.
· Excluding
petroleum, prices
for industrial supplies & materials surged another 3.3% (17.0% y/y)
which was the same as the spike during March. These prices are up 11.7%
year to date due to strength in finished metal, chemicals and
agricultural prices. The detailed import price series can be found in
the Haver USINT database.
· Capital goods import prices rose
0.8% (2.1% y/y) last month but less the lower prices of computers,
capital goods prices rose 1.1% (4.4% y/y), the fastest rate of annual
gain since 1995. Prices of computers, peripherals and accessories fell
0.3% (-3.8% y/y).
· Finally, prices for nonauto consumer goods imports rose 0.2% (2.8% y/y) after two months of 0.4% increase. The y/y increase was the quickest since 1992. Price gains were notably strong for apparel and household goods.
· The increase in total export prices
eased to just 0.3% after three consecutive months of increase above
1.0%. Agricultural prices fell 2.2% (+32.3% y/y) but nonagricultural
export prices rose 0.6% (5.6% y/y).
· Globalization and Monetary Policy is today's speech by Cleveland Fed Bank President Sandra Pianalto and it can be found here.