Italy’s Manufacturing Output Slips and EMU Tops Out

Italy’s Manufacturing Output Slips and EMU Tops Out

May 12, 2008

By Robert Brusca

· The quarter to date (which is now the completed 2008-Q1 period) shows still strong results for Italian output. But the monthly numbers reveal a different trend. The quarter’s lift stems totally from the spurt in output in January. Since then output trends are on the decline in all sectors with the exception of transportation. Consumer goods output spurted by 3.6% in January, then fell by 2.6% in February and fell further, by 0.7% in March. Capital goods output has declined in March. Intermediate goods output is off for the last two months in a row – just about negating the rise in January.

· The graph shows that output trends in France and Germany are topping while Italy is seeing the sharpest deceleration among the EMU big-three economies.

Italy IP Excluding Construction
SAAR except m/m	Mar-08	Feb-08	Jan-08	3-mo	6-mo	12-mo	Quarter-to-date
IP-MFG	0.0%	-0.2%	1.9%	7.0%	-1.4%	-1.9%	5.3%
Consumer Goods	-0.7%	-2.6%	3.6%	0.9%	-2.1%	-4.3%	3.2%
Capital Goods	-0.3%	0.3%	6.3%	27.9%	-0.8%	-1.2%	16.1%
Intermediary Goods	-0.5%	-0.7%	1.3%	0.0%	-4.1%	-3.1%	1.0%
Memo
Transportation	2.7%	1.7%	3.0%	33.8%	0.7%	5.7%	6.2%

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