· Last
week's initial claims for unemployment insurance continued the recent
up/down pattern, with an upward drift, of the last several periods. They
fell by 18,000 to 365,000 after an upwardly revised 38,000 increase
during the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for claims to
total 375,000 last week.
· The four week moving average of initial claims rose slightly week-to-week to 367,000 (17.0% y/y) after claims averaged 365,000 during April.
· A
claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in
nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative)
76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change
in nonfarm payroll employment.
· Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 10,000 after an upwardly revised 84,000 worker increase during the prior week. The latest level was near its highest since early 2004 and it provides some indication of workers' ability to find employment.
· The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
· Initial claims for the week ended April 26 increased the most in Massachusetts, New York, Kentucky, New Jersey and Michigan. The largest decreases occurred in Texas, Rhode Island, California, Pennsylvania and Connecticut.
· The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 2.3% for the second week. The latest also was the highest since 2004.
· Mitigating the Impact of Foreclosures on Neighborhoods is yesterday's speech by Fed Governor Randall Kroszner and it is available here.