U.S. Chain Store Sales Dipped Last Week

May 6, 2008

By Tom Moeller

· In its ICSC-UBS Chain Store survey, the International Council of Shopping Centers reported that sales dipped 0.2% last week after the prior period's 0.9% rise.

· During all of April sales rose 1.0% from March and they began May up another 0.4%.

· During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

· The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

· During the latest week, the leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell a sharp 1.2% (-3.7% y/y) and it has been declining steadily for more than a year.

· The chain store sales figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.

· The April 2008 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices from the Federal Reserve Board is available here.

 

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 05/03/08 04/26/08 Y/Y 2007 2006 2005
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 496.3 491.8 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 3.6%

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