· Initial
claims for unemployment insurance claims reversed the prior period's
decline and rose 35,000 last week to 380,000. Consensus expectations had
been for claims to total 360,000 last week.
· The four week moving average of initial claims, however, fell to 363,750 (13.1% y/y), its lowest level in over a month.
· A
claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in
nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative)
76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change
in nonfarm payroll employment.
· Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 74,000 and also reversed the prior week's decline. The latest level was its highest since early 2004 and it provides some indication of workers' ability to find employment.
· The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
· The insured rate of unemployment rose to 2.3% after four weeks at 2.2%. The latest also was the highest since 2004.