U.S. Real DPI Flat in March, Trend Growth Reduced
May 1, 2008
By Tom Moeller
|
· Nominal personal income grew 0.3% during March which was slightly lower than the 0.4% Consensus expectation. The gain left the three-month growth in income at 4.4% which was down from the 6.2% rise during all of last year. · Wage & salary income rose 0.5% (3.3% y/y) after a 0.3% February increase. Three month growth in wages amounted to 5.5% which has been stable of late but well reduced from the 10% rates of growth early in 2007 and late in 2006. Factory sector wages rose 0.3% (-0.2% y/y), the same as in February, and wages & salaries in the private service-providing industries rose 0.5% (3.6% y/y). These two annual rates of growth are well off the growth rates posted during the middle of 2007. Wages in the government sector rose 0.3% (5.0% y/y) and three month growth rose to 7.4%. That was up from the 4.6% rise during 2007.
· Personal consumption expenditures grew 0.4% during March though, when adjusted for price inflation, real spending rose just 0.1% and it grew at a 1.0% annual rate over the last three months. That's after 2.9% growth in 2007 and less than the 3.0% growth in each of the prior two years. · Real spending on discretionary items continued weak. Motor vehicle & parts purchases fell 0.5% last month and three month growth cratered to -10.3%. Real spending on household furniture & appliances fell 0.4% in March and three month growth was 0.2% after a 7.8% rise last year. Real spending on apparel increased 0.8% and three month growth actually picked up to 10.3% after an abysmal December last year. These and other detailed spending figures are available in Haver's USNA database. · The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% after the 0.1% uptick in February. The 0.2% rise in the core PCE price index beat expectations for a 0.1%. The three month growth in prices rose to 2.9% but that was up slightly from 2.5% in 2007 and 2.8% in 2006. The core price index rose 0.2% but the three month rate of growth fell slightly to 2.0% from 2.1% last year and 2.2% in 2006. · The personal savings rate remained barely positive at 0.2%, down just a bit from prior years.
|
|
March |
February |
Y/Y |
2007 |
2006 |
2005 |
|
|
Personal Income |
0.3 |
0.5 |
4.0 |
6.2 |
6.6 |
5.9 |
| Disposable Personal Income | 0.3 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 4.7 |
|
Personal
Consumption |
0.4 |
0.1 |
5.3% |
5.5 |
5.9 |
6.2 |
|
Saving Rate |
0.2 |
0.4 |
1.5
(Mar. 07) |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
|
PCE Chain Price
Index |
0.3 |
0.1 |
3.2 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
|
Less food
& energy |
0.2 |
0.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
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