Household Confidence in Near Free Fall in France
April 29, 2008
By Robert Brusca
· Unemployment expectations remain subdued however in the lower 35% of their range and they are not on a clear rising trend either. Price developments are, however, high and rising reading in the 96th percentile of their range. The spending environment is assessed as beginning in the bottom quarter of its range since 1990. On balance French consumers are under pressure and showing some of the same conditions we see in Italy and in the UK. The last German assessment by consumers was up. So Germany has some very different dynamics in play despite the fact its industrial indicators are a tattered its consumers have gotten a second wind. The Euro Area is generally showing the impact from financial turmoil and high commodity prices along with a too-strong currency.
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|
INSEE Household Monthly Survey |
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|
Since Jan 1990 |
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|
Apr-08 |
Mar-08 |
Feb-08 |
Jan-08 |
Percentile |
Rank |
|
|
Household Confidence |
-37 |
-36 |
-35 |
-35 |
0.0 |
215 |
|
Living Standards |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Past 12-Mos |
-69 |
-71 |
-68 |
-65 |
2.2 |
214 |
|
Next 12-Mos |
-43 |
-40 |
-42 |
-44 |
1.7 |
214 |
|
Unemployment: Next 12 |
3 |
11 |
11 |
9 |
36.4 |
176 |
|
Price Developments |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Past 12-Mos |
56 |
60 |
43 |
39 |
96.6 |
2 |
|
Next 12-Mos |
-36 |
-41 |
-25 |
-12 |
26.4 |
108 |
|
Savings |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Favorable to Save |
24 |
25 |
24 |
27 |
55.6 |
101 |
|
Ability to Save Next 12 Mos |
-13 |
-16 |
-13 |
-12 |
34.5 |
161 |
|
Spending |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Favorable for major purchase |
-28 |
-28 |
-26 |
-25 |
24.1 |
198 |
|
Financial Situation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Current |
12 |
13 |
13 |
14 |
42.9 |
104 |
|
Past 12-Mos |
-29 |
-30 |
-27 |
-25 |
4.0 |
214 |
|
Next 12-Mos |
-16 |
-14 |
-14 |
-14 |
0.0 |
214 |
|
Number of observations in the period |
220 |
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