Household Confidence in Near Free Fall in France

April 29, 2008

By Robert Brusca

· The INSEE household confidence reading is at its lowest mark since 1990. Living standards in the past and next 12-months are assessed as being in the bottom several percentage points of their range for the period. The same is true of the assessment of their financial situation by households. 

· Unemployment expectations remain subdued however in the lower 35% of their range and they are not on a clear rising trend either. Price developments are, however, high and rising reading in the 96th percentile of their range. The spending environment is assessed as beginning in the bottom quarter of its range since 1990. On balance French consumers are under pressure and showing some of the same conditions we see in Italy and in the UK. The last German assessment by consumers was up. So Germany has some very different dynamics in play despite the fact its industrial indicators are a tattered its consumers have gotten a second wind. The Euro Area is generally showing the impact from financial turmoil and high commodity prices along with a too-strong currency. 


 

INSEE Household Monthly Survey

         

Since Jan 1990

 

Apr-08

Mar-08

Feb-08

Jan-08

Percentile

Rank

Household Confidence

-37

-36

-35

-35

0.0

215

Living Standards

 

 

 

 

 

 

Past 12-Mos

-69

-71

-68

-65

2.2

214

Next 12-Mos

-43

-40

-42

-44

1.7

214

Unemployment: Next 12

3

11

11

9

36.4

176

Price Developments

 

 

 

 

 

 

Past 12-Mos

56

60

43

39

96.6

2

Next 12-Mos

-36

-41

-25

-12

26.4

108

Savings

 

 

 

 

 

 

Favorable to Save

24

25

24

27

55.6

101

Ability to Save Next 12 Mos

-13

-16

-13

-12

34.5

161

Spending

 

 

 

 

 

 

Favorable for major purchase

-28

-28

-26

-25

24.1

198

Financial Situation

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

12

13

13

14

42.9

104

Past 12-Mos

-29

-30

-27

-25

4.0

214

Next 12-Mos

-16

-14

-14

-14

0.0

214

 

Number of observations in the period

220

 

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