French Service Sector Outlook and Climate Gauges Slip

April 28, 2008

By Robert Brusca

· The French service sector climate indicator is down sharply in the current month form 104 to 102 after being as high as 109 in January to start the year. Service sector sentiment has been steadily eroding. The climate indicator is in the 63 percentile of its range. The gauge of employment expected in the next three months is lower in the 58th percentile of its range. 

· The slip in the service sector is both steady and widespread. France is coming off a period when the service climate has been in the top 94th percentile of its range. But conditions in France have been deteriorating rapidly. Morale and activity gauges from other large EMU economies have been off peak. France itself is succumbing to these adverse pressures. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said Sunday that the Federal Reserve has a policy of very low interest rates and the ECB has kept interest rates elevated and that the differential in rates between the two is a little too big at the moment. This continues a policy of being obliquely critical of the tight ECB interest rate policy. 

 

 

France INSEE Services Survey Jan 2000-date

 

Apr-08

Mar-08

Feb-08

Jan-08

Percentile

Rank

Max

Min

Range

Mean

Climate Indicator

102

104

106

109

63.3

51

113

83

30

102

Climate: 3-Mos MAV

104

106

108

109

68.7

48

113

85

28

102

Climate: 12-Mos MAV

109

110

110

110

94.1

10

110

91

20

102

Outlook

-3

-1

-1

2

61.3

55

9

-22

31

-1

Sales

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Observed 3-Mos

9

17

13

13

69.0

28

18

-11

29

6

Expected 3-Mos

9

5

10

14

70.4

36

17

-10

27

7

Sales Price

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Observed over 3-Mos

5

1

1

1

75.0

2

8

-4

12

0

Expected over 3-Mos

2

1

0

0

70.0

10

5

-5

10

0

Employment

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Observed over 3-Mos

11

17

17

7

78.6

9

17

-11

28

4

Expected over 3-Mos

9

12

19

14

58.3

17

19

-5

24

5

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