French Service Sector Outlook and Climate Gauges Slip
April 28, 2008
By Robert Brusca
· The slip in the service sector is both steady and widespread. France is coming off a period when the service climate has been in the top 94th percentile of its range. But conditions in France have been deteriorating rapidly. Morale and activity gauges from other large EMU economies have been off peak. France itself is succumbing to these adverse pressures. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said Sunday that the Federal Reserve has a policy of very low interest rates and the ECB has kept interest rates elevated and that the differential in rates between the two is a little too big at the moment. This continues a policy of being obliquely critical of the tight ECB interest rate policy.
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|
France INSEE Services Survey Jan 2000-date |
||||||||||
|
Apr-08 |
Mar-08 |
Feb-08 |
Jan-08 |
Percentile |
Rank |
Max |
Min |
Range |
Mean |
|
|
Climate Indicator |
102 |
104 |
106 |
109 |
63.3 |
51 |
113 |
83 |
30 |
102 |
|
Climate: 3-Mos MAV |
104 |
106 |
108 |
109 |
68.7 |
48 |
113 |
85 |
28 |
102 |
|
Climate: 12-Mos MAV |
109 |
110 |
110 |
110 |
94.1 |
10 |
110 |
91 |
20 |
102 |
|
Outlook |
-3 |
-1 |
-1 |
2 |
61.3 |
55 |
9 |
-22 |
31 |
-1 |
|
Sales |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Observed 3-Mos |
9 |
17 |
13 |
13 |
69.0 |
28 |
18 |
-11 |
29 |
6 |
|
Expected 3-Mos |
9 |
5 |
10 |
14 |
70.4 |
36 |
17 |
-10 |
27 |
7 |
|
Sales Price |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Observed over 3-Mos |
5 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
75.0 |
2 |
8 |
-4 |
12 |
0 |
|
Expected over 3-Mos |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
70.0 |
10 |
5 |
-5 |
10 |
0 |
|
Employment |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Observed over 3-Mos |
11 |
17 |
17 |
7 |
78.6 |
9 |
17 |
-11 |
28 |
4 |
|
Expected over 3-Mos |
9 |
12 |
19 |
14 |
58.3 |
17 |
19 |
-5 |
24 |
5 |
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