· Unexpectedly,
initial unemployment insurance claims fell 33,000 last week to 342,000.
The decline followed a little revised 20,000 increase during the prior
week and it dropped claims to the lowest level in two months. Consensus
expectations had been for claims to total 375,000 last week.
· A
claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in
nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative)
76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change
in nonfarm payroll employment.
· The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 369,500 (14.0% y/y), its lowest level in a month.
· Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 65,000 after an upwardly revised 46,000 increase during the prior week. The figure provides some indication of workers' ability to find employment.
· The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
· The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 2.2% for the fifth week in the last six.