· The
National Activity Index (CFNAI) for March, published by the Chicago
Federal Reserve Bank, improved slightly to -0.78 from its low February
reading of -1.28. Nevertheless, the recent level was near the lowest
since early 2003 and was just above the levels reached during the 2001
recession.
· A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth of roughly 3%. During the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP. An index level at or below -0.70 typically has indicated negative U.S. economic growth.
· The complete CFNAI report is available here and the historical data are available in Haver's Surveys database.
· Each of the four broad categories of indicators — employment, production, consumption and housing — continued to make negative contributions to the CFNAI during March.
· The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production & income, the labor market, personal consumption & housing, manufacturing & trade sales, and inventories & orders.
· Economic Trends and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here.
· Globalization and Inflation Dynamics: The Impact of Increased Competition from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here