· The
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank reported that its April Index of
General Business Conditions in the manufacturing sector fell to -24.9%
and reversed all of the prior month's modest improvement. The latest
level was the lowest since the recession year 2001.
· The Philadelphia Fed constructs a diffusion index for total business activity and each of the sub indexes. The business conditions index reflects a separate survey question, not the sub indexes listed below.
· During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the level of the Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index and the three-month growth in factory sector industrial production. There has been a 42% correlation with q/q growth in real GDP.
· Sharp declines in the new orders, employment and in the inventories sub indexes were registered while shipments fell modestly.
· The prices paid index backed off
slightly after rising in March to its highest level since January 2005.
During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the
prices paid index and the three-month growth in the intermediate goods
PPI. There has been an 85% correlation with the change in core
intermediate goods prices.
· The separate index of expected business conditions in six months rose sharply and was at the highest level since November; positive for the first month in the last three. Expectations for new orders rose sharply
· The latest Business Outlook Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia can be found here.
· The Changing Business of Banking: Implications for Financial Stability and Lessons from Recent Market Turmoil is today's speech by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald L. Cohn and it is available here.
· The Economic Logic of a Fresh Start, which examines personal bankruptcy filings, from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia can be found here.