Euro Area IP Looses Some Momentum

Euro Area IP Looses Some Momentum

April 14, 2008

By Robert Brusca

· The e-Zone is showing some loss in momentum particularly among consumer goods and intermediate goods industries. Capital goods momentum has remained in tact albeit with hints of weakness in its recent volatility. In the quarter to date (Jan and Feb) growth is still running at a strong 6% annual rate compared to Q4 of 2007. But consumer goods output was negative in February and its Q1 growth rate is 2.2%. Intermediate goods output rose by 0.5% in February and it up at a 5.3% pace in Q1. Capital goods output is up by a strong 13.3% pace. Germany continues to post very strong IP figures but these belie some recent weakness in German orders. So far the Euro Area shows only scattered signs of slowing despite some dips in morale and a still-rising euro exchange rate.

E-zone and UK IP and MFG
Saar except m/m	Mo/Mo			Feb-08	Jan-08	Feb-08	Jan-08	Feb-08	Jan-08
Euro Area Detail	Feb-08	Jan-08	Dec-07	3-Mo	3-Mo	6-mo	6-mo	12-mo	12-mo	Q-2-Date
Manufacturing	0.3%	1.1%	0.2%	6.7%	3.4%	1.0%	3.1%	2.9%	3.1%	6.0%
Consumer Goods	-0.5%	0.8%	0.0%	1.6%	1.4%	-2.4%	1.6%	0.6%	1.4%	2.2%
Consumer Durables	-0.4%	2.4%	-0.2%	7.5%	1.1%	-7.7%	-0.3%	-0.7%	0.5%	--
Consumer Nondurables	-0.4%	0.5%	0.1%	1.0%	1.9%	-1.7%	2.1%	0.9%	1.7%	--
Intermediate Goods	0.5%	0.7%	0.6%	7.4%	2.1%	0.5%	2.1%	2.0%	2.2%	5.3%
Capital Goods	0.9%	2.4%	-0.3%	12.8%	8.1%	5.6%	6.9%	6.9%	6.8%	13.3%
Main E-zone Countries and UK IP in MFG
	Mo/Mo			Feb-08	105.9	Feb-08	105.9	Feb-08	105.9
MFG Only	Feb-08	Jan-08	Dec-07	3-Mo	3-Mo	6-mo	6-mo	12-mo	12-mo	Q-2-Date
Germany:	0.3%	1.0%	1.7%	12.6%	10.5%	6.1%	9.7%	6.3%	6.9%	11.1%
France: IP excl Construction	0.3%	0.6%	0.7%	6.3%	-1.5%	1.1%	1.0%	2.0%	2.9%	3.0%
Italy	-0.3%	1.8%	0.0%	6.1%	1.7%	-5.2%	-1.9%	-1.9%	-2.3%	5.8%
Spain	2.5%	3.2%	-0.7%	21.7%	-10.2%	5.5%	0.7%	4.1%	-1.1%	10.9%
UK	0.4%	0.5%	-0.2%	2.7%	0.4%	1.0%	0.6%	2.0%	0.7%	2.3%

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