· Last
week, initial claims for jobless insurance jumped 12,000 to 346,000
after a 5,000 decline during the prior week.
· The data are for the survey week for December nonfarm payrolls and claims rose 17,000 (5.2%) from the November period.
· A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
· The four week moving average of initial claims, a measure which smoothes out most of the series' w/w volatility, rose to 343,000 (5.3% y/y), the highest level since 2005.
· Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 12,000 after a 41,000 increase during the prior week.
· The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
· The insured rate of unemployment held at 2.0% for the fourth consecutive week.
· What Do Worker Flows Tell Us About Cyclical Fluctuations in Employment? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available here.