U.S. Housing Starts Down As Expected in November

December 18, 2007

By Tom Moeller

· November housing starts fell 3.7% from October to 1.187M units. Starts in October were revised up slightly due to more starts of multi-family units. Last month's figure matched Consensus expectations for 1.18M starts.

· Single-family starts fell last month by another 5.4% m/m to 829,000 units (AR), the lowest level since 1991 and down 55% from the peak during January 2006.

· Multi-family starts were roughly unchanged after the 45.9% m/m spike in October.

· By region, single family starts in the Northeast retraced nearly all of the recovery during October with a 20.0% (-29.2% y/y) decline. Single family starts in the Midwest also were quite weak and fell 20.8% (-28.6% y/y). Single family starts in the West fell a more moderate 6.8% m/m yet remained down 63.9% from the 2005 peak. In the South starts reversed a third of the October decline with a 5.4% m/m increase (-36.1% y/y).

· Building permits fell 1.5% (-24.6% y/y) and were off by nearly one half from the 2005 peak. Single-family permits fell as well by 5.6% (-33.7% y/y) and were off an even greater 57.5% from the peak. 

· Housing Woes Weigh Heavily on the Economy from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here

 

Housing Starts (000s, AR)

November

October

Y/Y

2006

2005

2004

Total

1,187

1,232

-24.2%

1,812

2,073

1,950

  Single-Family

829

876

-34.9%

1,474

1,719

1,604

  Multi-Family

358

356

22.6%

338

354

345

Building Permits

1,152

1,170

-24.6%

1,842

2,159

2,058

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