U.S. Current Account Deficit Eased Further in Q3

December 17, 2007

By Tom Moeller

· The US current account deficit fell further last quarter to $178.5 billion from $188.9 billion in Q2, a figure that was revised slightly shallower. The Q3 deficit was shallower than Consensus expectations for a deficit of $183.3 billion. 

· The latest deficit totaled 5.1% of GDP and it peaked as a percentage of GDP nearly two years ago at 6.8% in Q4 2005.

· That shrinkage occurred as the deficit on merchandise trade improved slightly $199.7B from Q2's deficit of $204.2B and from its deepest shortfall a year ago of $219.9B  During the last year only, exports grew 10.0% and outpaced the 4.4% y/y growth in imports.

· The effects of the lower U.S. dollar and the strength of foreign economies versus the U.S. is apparent most decisively in the surplus in services trade. It improved markedly to a record surplus of $26.5B from $25.8B in 2Q. Exports of services during the last year alone grew 14.3%. Travel exports grew 17.7% y/y, passenger fares were up 10.9% and freight shipping grew 11.3%. Import growth, conversely was contained to 9.2% due to moderate 7.7% growth in travel, 4.8% growth in passenger fares and a slight 1.4% advance in private freight transportation.

· Foreign trade zones from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis can be found here.



US Balance of Payments,
 Bil.$, SA

Q3 2007

Q2 2007

Year Ago

2006 2005 2004
Current Account Balance ($ Bil.)

-178.5

-188.9

-217.3

-811.5

-754.8

-640.2

  Deficit % of GDP -5.1 -5.5 -6.6 -6.2 -6.1 -5.5
  Balance on Goods ($ Bil.)

-199.7

-204.2

-218.9

-838.3

-787.1

-669.6

    Exports 

3.5%

1.2%

11.0%

12.7%

10.9%

13.7%

    Imports 

2.4%

0.9%

4.4%

10.4%

12.9%

16.8%

  Balance on Private Services ($ Bil.) 26.5 25.8 19.6 79.8 72.8 57.5
    Exports 2.4% 5.1% 14.3% 9.9% 10.5% 14.7%
    Imports 2.2% 3.1% 9.2% 9.3% 8.7% 16.8%
  Balance on Income ($ Bil.)

20.5

12.7

5.9

36.6

48.1

56.4

  Unilateral Transfers ($ Bil.)

-25.8

-23.2

-23.9

-89.6

-88.5

-88.4

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