· Last
week, initial claims for jobless insurance fell a modest 7,000 to
333,000 but the prior week's level was revised up slightly.
· The four week moving average of initial claims, a measure which smoothes out most of the series' w/w volatility, dipped to 338,750 (4.0% y/y), near the highest level since 2005.
· A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
· Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 38,000 after an unrevised 59,000 decline during the prior week.
· The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
· The insured rate of unemployment held at 2.0% for the third consecutive week.
· Fixing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve also from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.