U.S. Retail Sales Beat Expectations, Sales of Discretionary Items Firm

December 13, 2007

By Tom Moeller

· November U.S. retail sales doubled expectations for a 0.6% increase and rose 1.2%. That followed an unrevised 0.2% gain during October. The gains occurred despite the recent sharp drop in consumer sentiment.

· Excluding autos sales also beat expectations for a 0.7% gain and rose 1.8% after a 0.4% increase during the prior month.

· The strength was not all attributable to higher gasoline prices. Less gasoline, nonauto sales rose 1.1% following the meager 0.1% October uptick

· Sales of discretionary items were notably firm last month. Apparel store sales surged 2.6% (6.6% y/y) but the prior month was revised down to a 0.5% decline. Furniture, home furnishings & appliance stores sales also surged 1.7% after the 0.3% rise during October. Prior months' slight declines were revised positive. Sales of electronics & appliances jumped 2.5% (5.0% y/y). Sales at general merchandise stores increased 0.9% (5.0% y/y) after a little revised 0.1% October uptick. 

· Even sales of building materials were strong during November and posted a 1.2% (0.8% y/y) increase, though the prior month was revised down to a 0.8% decline.

· Sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) ballooned 1.9% (10.7% y/y) and the prior month's decline was revised to a 0.4% increase.

· Motor vehicle & parts purchases fell 1.0% (+1.9% y/y). The decline was somewhat at odds with the 0.9% m/m rise in unit sales of light vehicles during November.

· Gasoline service station sales jumped 6.8%, lifted by the 9.9% m/m rise in gasoline prices. The 3.1% rise during October was very much upwardly revised. So far this month gas prices are down 1.6% from the November average of $3.08 per gallon.   

· Corporate Access to External Financing from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.

 

 

November

October

Y/Y

2006

2005

2004

Retail Sales & Food Services

1.2%

0.2%

6.3%

6.2%

6.6%

6.1%

  Excluding Autos

1.8%

0.4%

7.4%

7.3%

7.6%

7.1%

    Less Gasoline

1.1%

0.1% 5.3% 7.2% 6.6% 6.1%

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