U.S. PPI Total Surged, Core Firm

December 13, 2007

By Tom Moeller

· Finished producer prices surged 3.2% last month after little change during October. A 1.5% rise had been expected. Core finished goods producer prices rose a firm 0.4%, the strongest gain since this past February.

· Energy prices increased 14.1% (25.7% y/y) led by a 34.8% (50.9% y/y) pop in the price of gasoline. Home heating oil prices also surged by 31.5% (36.0% y/y) but natural gas prices fell 5.2% (+1.0% y/y).

· The firm gain in the core PPI almost wholly reflected a 0.6% rise in passenger car prices and a 2.3% surge in light truck prices.

· Capital equipment prices rose 0.3% (1.3% y/y on the strength of light truck prices.  

· Food prices were unchanged (7.2% y/y) after 1.0%+ gains during the prior two months.

· Intermediate goods prices surged 3.7% on the strength of higher energy prices and a 1.2% (16.3% y/y) surge in food prices. Excluding food & energy prices were also firm and rose 1.0% (3.3% y/y). 

· The crude materials PPI surged 8.7% led higher by a 17.0% (23.5% y/y) jump in energy prices. The core crude materials PPI fell 0.5%.

 · A Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here

 

Producer Price Index

November

October

Y/Y

2006

2005

2004

Finished Goods

3.2%

0.1% 

  7.7% 

2.9%

 4.9% 

3.6% 

  Core

0.4%

0.0%

 1.9%

1.4%

2.4%

1.5%

Intermediate Goods

3.7%

0.1%

8.6%

6.4%

 8.0%

6.6%

  Core

1.0%

0.1%

3.3%

6.0%

 5.5%

5.7%

Crude Goods

8.7%

 2.4% 

 22.2%

1.4%

14.6%

 17.5%

  Core

-0.5%

1.4%

 18.9%

20.9%

4.9%

 26.5%

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