·
During November, another jump in petroleum prices raised overall import
prices by 2.7% after a 1.4% October increase. Consensus expectations had
been for a 2.4% gain.· Petroleum prices, overall, gained 18.0% (68.7% y/y). Fuel oil prices rose 18.0% (68.7% y/y) and crude petroleum prices rose 7.5% (53.0% y/y).
· Less petroleum, import prices rose
0.7% after a 0.5% rise uptick during October.
· During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a reduced 47% against a broader basket of currencies. Why a Dollar Depreciation May Not Close the U.S. Trade Deficit from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here
· Prices
for industrial supplies & materials excluding petroleum surged 2.7%
(7.9% y/y). The detailed import price series can be found in the Haver
USINT database.
· Capital goods import prices rose 0.2% (0.8% y/y). Prices of computers, peripheral and semiconductors fell 0.2% (-5.1% y/y). Less the high tech sector, capital goods prices rose an accelerated 0.3% (3.2% y/y).
· Prices for imports of consumer goods rose 0.2% (1.7% y/y) as apparel prices were unchanged after firm gains early this year (1.5% y/y). Prices for furniture and household items rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y).
·
Overall export prices were strong again and posted a 0.9% gain (6.1%y/y).
Agricultural prices rose another strong 1.4% (23.0% y/y) while
nonagricultural prices also were firm and rose 0.8% (4.6% y/y).
· Global Savings, Investment and World Real Interest Rates is a 2007 working paper from the Royal Bank of Canada and it can be found here.