U.S. Chain Store Sales Remained Low

December 11, 2007

By Tom Moeller

· Chain store sales in December's first full week held the low level reached at the end of November. A 0.2% uptick was little recovery from the prior week's 2.0% w/w collapse according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.

· Sales began December 1.3% below the November average which fell 0.2% from the October average.

· During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

· The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

· The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS rose 0.2% breaking a string of three consecutive weekly declines. 

·  The Federal Reserve’s 2007 study of noncash payments is available here.

·  Housing, credit and consumer expenditure from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City can be found here.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 12/08/07 11/31/07 Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 469.3 468.5 2.3% 3.3% 3.6% 4.7%

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