US Flow of Funds: Debt Growth Back Up Due To Financial Sector

December 6, 2007

By Tom Moeller

· Credit market debt outstanding owed by all sectors of the economy grew 11.0% (AR, 9.3% y/y) during the third quarter. The increase was the strongest since 4Q 2005 and reflected broad based, strong gains in the financial sector.. 

· Credit market debt owed by the financial sector zoomed at a 16.5% (11.2% y/y) annual rate which was the strongest rate of gain since early 2001. Gains at commercial banks (41.0% y/y), bank holding companies (23.2 y/y), savings institutions (-8.8% y/y) and credit unions (68.9% y/y) were well into double or triple digit rates of growth.

· Stable was consumer credit growth which held at an 8.2% (7.8% y/y) quarterly rate of growth. Households' obligations on home mortgages grew 7.3% (8.0% y/y) which was half the growth rates seen a few years back. Conversely, credit card debt rose sharply (5.3% y/y) and the quarterly growth rate of 10.3% was the quickest since 2004. Bank loans also surged.  

· The net worth of the US household sector last quarter improved to a record $58.604 trillion as the dollar gain in household sector assets, which totaled 72.8 trillion, outweighed by four times the growth of liabilities which total $14.1 trillion.

· Total assets of households and nonprofit organizations grew at a 4.9% rate (7.4 y/y). Households' ownership of real estate assets was much reduced to a 2.1% growth rate (4.3% y/y), the slowest rate of gain since 1993. That, however, was offset by a 6.4% (9.5% y/y) gain in financial assets led by a one-quarter (7.2% y/y) rise in the value of credit market instruments and a rise in the value of mutual fund share holdings (21.8% y/y). The value of money market shares rose by one third as assets were shifted to a safe haven (24.5% y/y).

 

Flow of Funds (Y/Y Chg.) % of Total 3Q'07 2Q'07 2006 2005 2004
Total Credit Market Debt Outstanding -- 9.3% 8.7% 9.5% 8.8% 9.2%
    Federal Government 12% 4.3% 3.0% 3.9% 7.0% 9.0%
    Households 27% 7.8% 8.2% 10.3% 10.7% 11.5%
    Nonfinancial Corporate Business 14% 11.0% 9.8% 8.4% 5.1% 3.5%
  Financial Sectors 32% 11.2% 8.9% 10.1% 8.5% 9.2%
Net Worth: Households & Nonprofit Organizations (Trillions) -- $58.604 $57.979 $56.117 $52.061 $48.164
  Tangible Assets: Households -- $27.484 $27.325 $26.671 $25.019 $22.464
   Financial Assets: Households -- $45.277 $44.579 $42.880 $39.203 $36.747

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