· Last
week, initial claims for jobless insurance retraced most of the
prior period's surge. The 15,000 worker decline to 338,000 followed
a little revised increase of 24,000.
· The four week moving average of initial claims, a measure which smoothes out most of the series' w/w volatility, rose to 340,250 (4.0% y/y). That was the highest level since 2005.
· A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
· By state, some of the largest increases in the four week average level of claims were in New Jersey, California, & Indiana, each to or near to the highest level since 2003. Other states with large increases recently were Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
· These detailed claims figures by state are in Haver's Regional Weekly database.
· Continuing
claims for unemployment insurance fell 59,000 after the 104,000 surge
during the prior week. That gain was revised down only slightly from the
initial report.
· The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
· The insured rate of unemployment held at 2.0% after the prior week's increase.
· The 'Great Moderation' in Output and Employment Volatility: An Update from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.