US 3Q GDP Up 4.9%: Trade & Inventories Boosted Revision, Profits Fell
November 29, 2007
By Tom Moeller
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· Improvement in the net export deficit added 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth during 3Q versus an initial indication of a 0.9 point add. During 2Q, improved net exports made a 1.3 percentage point growth contribution. A modest upward revision to export growth to 18.9% (AR, 10.2% y/y) added 2.1 points to GDP growth and a modest downward revision to import growth to 4.2% (1.7% y/y) left imports subtracting 0.7 points from growth. · Inventories added a revised
1.0 percentage points to 3Q growth in GDP versus an initial indication
of just a 0.4 add. Inventories contributed 0.2 points to 2Q growth and
that contribution has been negative this year. · Overall corporate profits fell at a 4.6% annual rate (+1.9% y/y) last quarter. The housing market's travails weighed down the financial sector' earnings by 20.5% (AR, +3.4% y/y). Domestic nonfinancial sector profitability also fell 5.9% (AR, -8.3% y/y) as costs rose but the lower dollar boosted rest of world earnings by 30.9% (AR, 34.7% y/y). · Growth in final sales to domestic purchasers actually was taken down a notch to 2.4% but still remained slightly improved from the 2.1% growth during the second quarter. · The drop in residential investment last quarter was left roughly unchanged and it fell 19.7% (AR, -6.3% y/y). It subtracted 1.0 percentage points from growth during 3Q after subtractions of between 0.6 and 1.3 percentage points in each of the prior five quarters. · Firm growth in business fixed
investment continued as the underpinning of US demand. The 9.4% (5.2%
y/y) rate of growth was upwardly revised and it added 1.0 percentage
points to 3Q growth, about the same as during 2Q. Spending on
structures was upwardly revised with a 14.3% rate of growth (13.3%
y/y) and spending on equipment & software also was revised up to
7.2% (AR, 1.7% y/y) after weak growth or q/q declines from 2Q '06 to
1Q '07. · Growth in real personal consumption expenditures was taken down a notch to 2.7% (2.9% y/y) but it still was double growth during 2Q. Growth in spending on durable goods rose 4.0% (4.6% y/y) despite a 4.9% drop in spending on motor vehicles. Nondurable goods spending rose 1.9% (2.2% y/y), which was lower than originally indicated, and services spending growth held steady at 2.8% (3.0% y/y). · The GDP chain price index was left little changed at a 0.9% growth rate. Nonresidential (+0.8% y/y) and residential (+0.7 y/y) investment price indexes both fell during 3Q while consumer prices rose 1.7% (2.% y/y), held back by the decline in gasoline prices. Less food & energy consumer prices rose 2.2% (2.2% y/y), a number that was revised up slightly. · The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve Board is available here.
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| Chained 2000$, % AR | 3Q '07 Preliminary | 3Q ' 07 Advance | 2Q '07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 |
2004 |
| GDP | 4.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 |
3.6 |
| Inventory Effect | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.4 |
| Final Sales | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
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Foreign Trade Effect |
1.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.7 |
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Domestic Final Demand |
2.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.8 |
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Chained GDP Price Index |
0.9 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.1 |