· Initial
claims for unemployment insurance surged much more than expectations to
the highest level since early this year. The 23,000 rise last week to
352,000 followed a little revised 12,000 decline during the week prior.
The early timing of this year's Thanksgiving holiday may have affected
the latest figure.
· A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
· The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 335,250 (3.3% y/y) and that was up 3.5% from the prior four weeks.
·
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Nov. 17 were
in Texas (+1,097), Kentucky (+797), Idaho (+341), Arkansas (+219), and
Wisconsin (+209), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-6,493),
California (-5,905), Puerto Rico (-3,882), New Jersey (-3,011), and
Virginia (-1,542).
· Continuing claims for unemployment insurance surged 112,000 from the prior week, the largest one week increase since early this year, and it followed modest decline in the prior three weeks.
· The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
· The insured rate of unemployment rose slightly to 2.0% from 1.9% during the prior week.