·
According to the Conference Board
Survey consumer confidence dropped 8.3% in November to a reading of
87.3, the seventh m/m decline of 2007 and the largest since September
2005. The decline was to the lowest level in two years. A much lesser
drop to 91.4 had been generally expected by economists.
· The expectations index fell out of bed and posted a 14.1% m/m drop. It is off by a quarter during the last twelve months. Expectations for employment (more jobs) fell to a meager 10.8% looking for a rise, the least since the recession of 1990. Only 12.4% of respondents expected better business conditions, the least since 2000 while 18.7% expected an improvement in their income. That was down just slightly.
· Plans to buy major appliances in the next six months improved slightly from a very depressed October level but the percentage intending to buy a home collapsed to just 2.5%, the least since 1994.
· Just
2.0% of respondents planned to by a new automobile within the next six
months, the least since 1974.
· The
present conditions index fell 2.2%, similar to the October m/m
decline. The decline was to a level which was the lowest in
about two years. Just 22.3% saw business conditions as good, the least
since 2004, and 23.2% saw jobs as plentiful. A lesser 21.3% of
respondents viewed jobs as hard to get.
· The expected inflation rate in twelve months jumped to 5.7% from 5.1% in October, the highest expectation in two years.
· According to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index Composite 20, U.S. home prices fell 0.9% m/m in September. The decline pulled the y/y comparison to a negative 4.9% and since the beginning of this year house prices have fallen 3.8%.
· Home prices in San Diego California were extremely weak with a 9.6%
y/y decline as were prices in Miami Florida which fell 10.0% y/y. In
Las Vegas home prices fell 9.0% y/y and in Los Angeles prices fell
7.0%.
· More moderate, but still substantial, declines were registered in New York (-3.6% y/y), Chicago (-2.5% y/y) and Denver (-0.9%).
· The index of just 20 U.S. cities and their surrounding areas is not adjusted for the quality or the size of the home. It fell five percent in August from a year ago.