UK GDP Grows 3%

November 26, 2007

By Robert Brusca

· UK GDP slipped in the current quarter to a growth rate of 3% from 3.3% in Q2. And while it is a touch below its year/year pace of late it is also a touch above its five year range. Private consumption was strong in Q3 at an annualized quarterly pace of 4.1%. Above last quarter’s pace and well above the five-year trend. Public spending at 1.2% was slow. Capital spending at 6.7% was a sharp rebound but the year/year pace is slowing. Exports and imports each were up sharply on the quarter. Their past trends are hard to compare due to special factors in the historic pattern. Domestic demand remains solid in the UK. At 4.7% the quarter was up sharply and the year/year erosion to a pace of 3.5% was mild and is still above the five-year average. On balance GDP trends seem to be holding up well. It is the path of inflation that remains most in doubt, especially with oil prices flaring. Housing is getting decidedly weaker but there is no evidence of any knock-on impact on GDP. 

UK GDP
   

Consumption

Capital Formation

  

Domestic

 

GDP

Private

Public

Total

Housing

Exports

Imports

Demand

% change Q/Q

Q3-07

3.0%

4.1%

1.2%

6.7%

#N/A

11.5%

16.7%

4.7%

Q2-07

3.3%

3.0%

1.4%

-3.7%

1.7%

0.6%

-1.6%

2.6%

Q1-07

3.2%

2.7%

1.9%

4.4%

10.5%

0.9%

4.6%

4.2%

Q4-06

3.3%

4.4%

2.7%

13.7%

-9.7%

0.9%

-1.8%

2.4%

% change Yr/Yr

Q3-07

3.2%

3.5%

1.8%

5.1%

#N/A

3.4%

4.2%

3.5%

Q2-07

3.1%

2.7%

2.0%

6.2%

3.7%

-12.4%

-9.9%

3.6%

Q1-07

3.1%

3.2%

1.2%

9.0%

6.6%

-10.2%

-7.1%

3.8%

Q4-06

3.2%

2.6%

1.9%

10.3%

6.4%

-2.4%

-0.6%

3.6%

5-Yrs

2.8%

2.7%

2.6%

4.4%

#N/A

4.0%

4.7%

3.0%

 

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