· The
National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
during October ran negative for the third consecutive month at -0.73. It
was the eight month in the last ten that the index ran negative and
it landed the three month moving average at its lowest level (-0.56)
since 2003.· The Chicago Fed indicated that three of the four broad categories of indicators—employment, production, and consumption and housing—made negative contributions to the index.
· A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth and during the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
· The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.
· The complete CFNAI report is available here.