U.S. Personal Income Again Light, Core Prices Ease
December 22, 2006
By Tom Moeller
· The PCE chain price index was unchanged after an unrevised 0.2% decline in October. Prices less food & energy also were unchanged for the first time since 2002. The three month change in core prices fell to 1.8% (AR) and the six month change fell to 2.1%, its lowest this year. · Disappointment in income continued as rental income fell 2.8% (-7.9% y/y) after a downwardly revised 4.7% skid in October. Proprietors' income also rose just 0.1% (2.9% y/y) but October's increase was revised up to 0.6%. · Wage & salary disbursements increased 0.3% (6.3% y/y) although the October increase was lessened a bit to 0.5%. Factory sector wages slipped marginally (+3.9% y/y) following a downwardly revised 0.4% gain while wages in the private service-producing industries rose a moderate 0.4% (6.8% y/y). · Interest income rose 0.4% (6.3% y/y) for the second month and dividend income surged 1.1% (11.7% y/y) for the third month. · Disposable personal income increased 0.3% (5.1% y/y) after a downwardly revised 0.2% October. Personal taxes increased 0.5% (11.8% y/y) after the 1.1% October jump. · Real disposable personal income rose 0.3% (3.2% y/y) last month and the three month growth in real income was 6.4% (AR). Real disposable income per capita rose 0.2% (2.2% y/y) and three month growth was 5.4% (AR). · Personal consumption surged 0.5% after the upwardly revised 0.3% gain during October. Expectations had been for a 0.6% increase. Real consumer spending rose 0.5%, the same as in October. · The personal savings rate was a more negative -1.0% last month and so far in 2006 has averaged -0.9%. Should the Decline in the Personal Saving Rate Be a Cause for Concern? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is available here.
|
| Disposition of Personal Income |
November |
October |
Y/Y |
2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
| Personal Income | 0.3% | 0.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 3.2% |
| Personal Consumption | 0.5% | 0.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% |
| Savings Rate | -1.0% | -0.7% | -0.3% (Nov. '05) | -0.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% |
| PCE Chain Price Index | 0.0% | -0.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% |
| Less food & energy | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% |