·
The National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago remained negative in November at -0.26. The figure was negative
for the fifth month in the last seven. The three-month moving average of
the CFNAI fell to -0.32, its lowest level since 2003.
· A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth and during the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
· The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.
· The complete CFNAI report is available here.
· The latest Survey of Professional Forecasters from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available here.