Housing Starts Recover A Bit

December 19, 2006

By Tom Moeller

· November housing starts recovered less than half of the previous month's little revised decline with a 6.7% increase. The gain to 1.588M was slightly better than Consensus expectations for a rise to 1.54M starts.

· The year-to-date average for starts of 1.588M was 11.7% below the first eleven months of 2005.

· Single-family starts in November rose 8.1% to 1.281M, recovering less than half of the October decline which was to the lowest level since July 2000. The year-to-date average level of single family starts was 12.6% below 2005. 

· Multi-family starts gained back just 1.3% of the 8.5% October drop and were down 4.5% during this year's first eleven months.

· By region, single family housing starts in the South posted a 14.1% (-22.1% y/y) increase but that was only about half of the sharp October decline. Single family starts in the Northeast again were up (-13.6% y/y) but the gains during the last two months still have not recovered the precipitous 16.7% decline during September. Starts in the Midwest rose 1.5% (-37.6% y/y) and starts out West nudged up 1.4% (-38.5% y/y).

· Building permits fell 3.0% after a little revised 5.2% decline during October. This tenth monthly decline this year was to the lowest level since 1997. Permits to start single family homes fell 3.1% (-33.3% y/y) for the second consecutive month to the lowest since 1997.

· What Do Financial Asset Prices Say About the Housing Market? from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System can be found here

 

Housing Starts (000s, AR)

November

October

Y/Y 

2005 2004

2003 

Total

1,588

1,488

-25.5% 

2,073 1,950

1,854

  Single-family

1,281

1,185 

-28.6% 

1,719 1,604

1,505 

  Multi-family

303 

303 

-8.6% 

354 345

349 

Building Permits

1,506 

1,553 

-31.3% 

2,159 2,058

1,888

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