Another Record U.S. Current Account Deficit in 3Q
December 18, 2006
By Tom Moeller
· The deficit last quarter equaled 6.8% of GDP and so far this year has averaged 6.64% versus 6.35% during all of last year . · The deficit in merchandise trade deteriorated to $218.6B from an unrevised 2Q deficit of $210.6B. Exports grew 3.6% (16.5% y/y) yet that strong gain was again offset by a 3.7% surge in imports (13.5% y/y). · Last quarter, higher oil prices caused the balance in petroleum trade to deteriorate to $75.2B from $71.4B during 2Q. The nonpetroleum trade balance reversed all of its 2Q improvement and fell to $138.7B which was just shy of the record set during last year's fourth quarter.
· The U.S. capital account improved q/q though the net US foreign direct investment balance deteriorated. U.S. direct investment abroad rose 35% to $$63.1B (37.7% y/y). Foreign direct investment in the US, however, increased $44.1B, less than the $45.8B increase during 2Q. · Would Protectionism Defuse Global Imbalances and Spur Economic Activity? from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here. · Should We Worry About the Current Account Deficit? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond can be found here. · How Dangerous is the U.S. Current Account Deficit? from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
|
| US Int'l Balance of Payments | 3Q '06 | 2Q '06 |
Y/Y |
2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
| Current Account Deficit | $225.6 | $217.1B | $183.4B (3Q'05) | $791.5B | $665.3B | $527.5B |
| Goods/Services/Income Deficit | $204.1 | $195.3B | $174.0B (3Q'05) | $705.4B | $583.7B | $458.3B |
| Exports | 2.9% | 5.7% | 19.0% | 14.6% | 15.7% | 5.9% |
| Imports | 3.4% | 4.3% | 18.5% | 16.3% | 18.7% | 7.4% |
| Unilateral Transfers Deficit | $21.5B | $21.9B | $9.5B (3Q'05) | $86.1B | $81.6B | $69.2B |