Another Record U.S. Current Account Deficit in 3Q

    December 18, 2006

By Tom Moeller

· Last quarter the US current account deficit posted a new record of $225.6B versus a revised 2Q deficit of $217.1B which was slightly shallower than initially reported. The figure matched Consensus expectations for a 3Q deficit of $225B.

· The deficit last quarter equaled 6.8% of GDP and so far this year has averaged 6.64% versus 6.35% during all of last year .

· The deficit in merchandise trade deteriorated to $218.6B from an unrevised 2Q deficit of $210.6B. Exports grew 3.6% (16.5% y/y) yet that strong gain was again offset by a 3.7% surge in imports (13.5% y/y).

· Last quarter, higher oil prices caused the balance in petroleum trade to deteriorate to $75.2B from $71.4B during 2Q. The nonpetroleum trade balance reversed all of its 2Q improvement and fell to $138.7B which was just shy of the record set during last year's fourth quarter.

· The surplus in services trade improved sharply to a surplus of $18.3B from a revised $17.5B during 2Q which was better than initially estimated. Exports of services grew just 0.9% (8.5% y/y) last quarter but services imports grew an even smaller 0.1% (8.6% y/y). 

· The U.S. capital account improved q/q though the net US foreign direct investment balance deteriorated. U.S. direct investment abroad rose 35% to $$63.1B (37.7% y/y). Foreign direct investment in the US, however, increased $44.1B, less than the $45.8B increase during 2Q.

· Would Protectionism Defuse Global Imbalances and Spur Economic Activity? from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here

· Should We Worry About the Current Account Deficit? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond can be found here

· How Dangerous is the U.S. Current Account Deficit? from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here

 

US Int'l Balance of Payments 3Q '06 2Q '06

Y/Y

2005 2004 2003
Current Account Deficit $225.6 $217.1B $183.4B (3Q'05) $791.5B $665.3B $527.5B
  Goods/Services/Income Deficit $204.1 $195.3B $174.0B (3Q'05) $705.4B $583.7B $458.3B
    Exports 2.9% 5.7% 19.0% 14.6% 15.7% 5.9%
    Imports 3.4% 4.3% 18.5% 16.3% 18.7% 7.4%
  Unilateral Transfers Deficit $21.5B $21.9B $9.5B (3Q'05) $86.1B $81.6B $69.2B

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