U.S. Retail Sales Recovered

December 13, 2006

By Tom Moeller

· US retail sales last month recovered all of the weakness during the prior three months. Sales rose 1.0% following a 0.1% decline in October and a 0.6% shortfall in September which both were revised slightly shallower. The November increase easily beat Consensus expectations for a 0.2% rise.

· Sales by motor vehicle & parts dealers rose 0.9% (6.4% y/y) after an upwardly revised 1.0% October gain. New unit vehicle sales, however, fell 0.7% to 16.04M for the third decline in the last four months. Excluding autos, retail sales surged 1.1% after a slightly revised 0.3% October dip.

· Sales of some discretionary items recovered. Sales at furniture, home furnishings & appliance stores surged 2.1% (6.7% y/y) after an unrevised 0.4% October drop. Also up were building material sales which jumped 1.8% (4.2% y/y). Sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) made up for weakness during the prior three months with a 1.3% (10.1% y/y) jump.

· Restaurant and bar sales rose 0.7% (7.9% y/y) after firm gains during the prior four months.

· Still lagging, however, were apparel store sales which fell marginally (+6.7% y/y) after a 0.6% decline during October and, with a 0.4% (3.8% y/y) increase, sales at general merchandise stores recovered an unrevised 0.3% October decline.

· Sales at gasoline service stations recovered 2.3% after three months of decline though gasoline prices slipped another 0.7% last month to $2.23 per gallon.

· Nonauto retail sales less gasoline in November jumped 0.9% (6.4% y/y), triple the 0.3% increases during each of the prior three months. During the last three months these sales rose at a 6.5% annual rate, the best since March.

 

 

November

October

Y/Y

2005 2004 2003
Retail Sales & Food Services

1.0%

-0.1%

5.6%

7.2% 6.2% 4.2%
  Excluding Autos 1.1% -0.3% 5.3% 8.2% 7.2% 4.7%

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