Firm U.S. Payroll Report with Still More Upward Revisions
December 8, 2006
By Tom Moeller
· During 2006 payrolls have risen an average 149,000 per month versus a monthly average 165,000 during all of last year. The gain during the second half of this year in addition has been a firm 153,000 per month. · From the household jobs survey,
employment gains also showed strength and posted a 277,000 (2.1% y/y)
gain last month after October's 437,000 surge. Year to date employment
as measured by the household survey has risen an average 253,000 per
month. · The unemployment rate did tick up to 4.5% last month due to a 383,000 (1.5% y/y) surge in the labor force, but that may also be an indication of labor market strength. It reflected a 153,000 decline in the number of persons not in the labor force. That raised the labor force participation rate to 66.3%, the highest level since early 2003. · Private service-producing jobs from the establishment survey rose 154,000 (1.7% y/y). Professional & business services employment rose 43,000 (2.5% y/y) after a downwardly revised 29,000 October increase. Temporary help services jobs rose 4,800 (-0.8% y/y) but education & health services jobs rose 41,000 (2.6% y/y). Leisure & hospitality jobs increased 31,000 (2.5% y/y) and financial sector jobs gained 11,000 (1.9% y/y). · Government payrolls increased 18,000 (1.1% y/y) but most of the gain owed to a 13,000 (1.5% y/y) increase in local government jobs. · Factory sector payrolls fell 15,000
following a deepened 44,000 decline during October. Jobs in motor
vehicle & parts industries fell 6,900 (-3.8% y/y) while jobs in
furniture fell 5,200 (-4.0% y/y). Nondurable sector factory employment
fell 2,000 (-1.2% y/y) and declines were widespread. · Construction employment dropped 29,000 (+0.7% y/y) after a little revised 24,000 decline during October. Since the August peak construction jobs have fallen 0.7%. That decline has been led by a 109,100 (-4.6%) drop in residential specialty trade contractors since this group of workers' peak employment month last February. · Average hourly earnings halved the previous month's increase and rose 0.2%. Factory sector earnings rose just 0.1% (1.4% y/y) after a large 0.4% October gain. · The workweek held at the high 33.9 hours, the highest level since 2002. As a result, aggregate hours worked so far in 4Q rose 1.5% (AR) from 3Q when they rose 1.1%. · Tracking Productivity in Real Time from the Federal Reserve Bank of new York can be found here.
|
| Employment | November |
October |
Y/Y |
2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
| Payroll Employment | 132,000 | 79,000 | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | -0.3% |
| Manufacturing | -15,000 | -44,000 | -0.4% | -0.6% | -1.3% | -4.9% |
| Average Weekly Hours | 33.9 | 33.9 | 33.8 (Nov. '05) | 33.8 | 33.7 | 33.7 |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.2% | 0.4% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% (Nov. '05) | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% |