· Chain store sales collapsed as shoppers dropped after Thanksgiving week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. A 2.6% decline in sales last week lowered sales in the opening week of December 2.5% below the November average which had advanced 0.3% from October.

· During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

· The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

· Despite last week's sales drop, the leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS recovered the prior period's 0.3% decline (-0.1% y/y) and was up roughly 3% from the early year low.