Chicago Fed Survey of Factory Activity Down

November 30, 2006

By Tom Moeller

· The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank's Midwest manufacturing index fell 0.4% last month and it was the third consecutive monthly decline. The three month growth rate in the index dropped to -6.5% (AR), its worst since 2003.

· During the last ten years there has been a 89% correlation between the y/y change in Chicago's Midwest Mfg. index and the change in US factory sector industrial production. The October Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index can be found here.

· The auto sector index registered its fifth decline in the last six months while the steel index fell for the third consecutive month. The machinery index, however, reflected the firm capital goods sector and rose moderately (6.7% y/y).

· Industrial Ecology: Environmental and Economic Boon from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston can be found here

 

Federal Reserve Surveys

October

September

Oct. '05

2005

2004

2003

Chicago Fed Midwest Mfg. Index (2002 = 100) 106.1

106.5

103.6 102.1 100.4 97.1

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