·
The Conference Board reported that November consumer
confidence fell 2.1% to 102.9 following a downwardly revised 0.8% slip
during October. The decline ran
counter to Consensus
expectations for an increase to 106.4.
· During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
· Consumers'
assessment of the present situation fell 1.2% (+9.2% y/y) for the second
consecutive monthly drop. The percentage of respondents who viewed
business conditions as good (26.5%) fell but the percentage that viewed
jobs as hard to get (22.4%) rose to the highest level this year.
· The index measuring consumers' expectations fell for the first month in the last three (+0.9% y/y). Expectations of better business conditions in six months fell hard to the lowest level in over a year.
· The expected inflation rate in twelve months fell to 4.7%, the lowest since July of 2005.
· The Conference Board’s survey is conducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
· The Economic Outlook, today's remarks by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, are available here.