· Initial claims for jobless insurance increased 12,000 to 321,000 last week from a slightly revised level during the prior period. Consensus expectations had been for a little changed reading of 310,000 claims.

· This latest figure covers the survey period for November nonfarm payrolls and claims rose 21,000 (7.0%) from a depressed level during the October period.

· During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.

· The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 317,000 (0.1% y/y), its highest level in nearly three months. 

· There were no special factors sighted for the latest week's increase in claims. For the prior week, the report indicated that the largest increases in initial claims were in Mississippi (+547), California (+414), Massachusetts (+258), Idaho (+243), and North Carolina (+55), while the largest decreases were in Kentucky (-5,561), Illinois (-3,829), Pennsylvania (-3,645), Georgia (-2,977), and Florida (-2,291).

· Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 14,000 after a 3,000 worker decline the prior week that slightly weaker than reported initially.

· Who's Worrying About Inflation? from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.

11/18/06