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The National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago remained negative in October at -0.31, negative for the fifth
month in the last six. The three-month moving average of the CFNAI
dropped to -0.19, its lowest level since Hurricane Katrina depressed
activity last year.
· A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth and during the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
· The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.
· The complete CFNAI report is available here.
· The latest Survey of Professional Forecasters from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available here.