·
For September, the
Conference Board indicated that consumer confidence recovered most of
the prior month's drop, which was revised shallower, with a 4.3%
increase to 104.5. Consensus
expectations had been for a more moderate increase to 103.
· During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
· Consumers' assessment of the present situation recovered 3.1% (15.7% y/y). The percentage of respondents who viewed business conditions as good (27.4%) rose back to the July level and the percentage that viewed jobs as hard to get (21.3%) rose for the second month.
· The index measuring
consumers' expectations also recovered the prior month's decline with a
5.5% rise (23.1% y/y). Expectations for better business conditions
improved (16.3%) and more respondents expected an increase in jobs
(14.4%).
· Expectations for the inflation rate in twelve months dropped to 4.9%, the lowest level since March.
· The Conference Board’s survey is conducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
· What Happens To Banks When House Prices Fall? U.S. Regional Busts of the 1980s and 1990s from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.